This Is What The Public Betting Market Is Saying About US Election Odds

The US financial markets are closed today for the Juneteenth Federal Holiday.

There is a betting market on the November election run by a website called Predictit.org. What they operate are something akin to options contracts that are bought and sold every day. The chart above shows you how the prices for these contracts for the November Presidential election have been moving up and down.

Right now the option contract for a Democrat win costs 48 cents.

If they win that pays out $1.00 and if they lose you get ZERO.

As you can see, the Republican contract is higher in value at the moment than the Democrat one, and actually has been rising this month.

In fact, it’s been going up since Trump’s trial conviction.

The Biden campaign has argued that Biden’s poll numbers will go up as the summers goes on. They are telling donors that people just aren’t paying attention to the election campaigns and once they do, they’ll see more of Trump, and remember how much they didn’t like him before, and that will help Biden’s poll numbers.

That’s the reason they wanted to debate Trump early on June 27, instead of in October.

So, I would think that how these betting market odds change, and the poll numbers, in the few weeks after that debate will pretty much set the stage for November.

We’ll see how the Biden campaign predictions turn out for him, but things are not looking good for him so far.

I did a piece thinking ahead when it comes to trading and investing in November last week.