Yesterday, AAPL stock soared over 7% on news that the IPhones and other Apple gizmos would now have their talking at you app “SIRI” integrated with so called “AI.” I don’t know if that makes you want to laugh or cry, but stock traders on Tuesday saw it as reason to buy and chase the stock up all day long.

What I’m thinking about now, though, is what could happen five months from now with all of the financial markets and Presidential election. My initial thoughts on that are below, but first the top headlines this morning…..

And….. WSW Pro Thoughts On The Markets And The Election

In a WSW Pro comment the other day, I wrote, for the first time, about thinking ahead for the Presidential election, and a good chance that no matter who wins, there will be some stock market volatility afterwards. We already have seen wild market gyrations in India, Mexico, and South Africa last week following election results in each of those countries and over this weekend in Europe “right wing” parties advanced in elections across the continent. Macron has been forced to do “snap” elections in France.

These elections around the world show a backlash against incumbent political leaders and parties. It is a bad omen for Biden, just as Brexit was for Hillary Clinton. As things stand today, the betting markets are betting in favor of Trump and the Republicans to win the Presidential election in November. A reliable poll has Biden and Trump tied, where I live, in the state of Virginia. That’s a bad sign for Biden, because he should have a big lead and does not. In 2020, he beat Trump by ten percentage points in Virginia, so being tied is a disaster here. The political pundits claim they are tied, not because Trump is appealing to more people, but because the masses are apathetic to Biden. The Biden campaign has dropped all talk of “Bidenomics,” which was their big slogan two years ago, to try to improve their messaging.

This is not to advocate for one candidate or the other. As investors we have to deal with what the real situation is, and no matter who wins we are likely to see some wild short-term market swings.

I have been looking at various volatility instruments over the past few days and have come to three conclusions about the markets and the election.

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