Not much happened in the markets to change the primary trend for the US stock market last week - it is STILL below its 200-day moving average in a stage four primary trend - despite Trump tweets and hope into his Thursday night speech that he would say things that suggested the war with Iran would come to an end soon. The market rallied into that and then sold off hard on Friday, as it became clear that despite what various commentators were saying the situation is still escalating.

I am doing fewer updates now, because so much of what is happening on a daily basis in the markets is pure noise - as last week’s market action shows.

Nothing has changed with the primary trends and I am doing fewer trades this year as long as they remain in place.

The only big buy I have done this year - and may do all year - was in the DBA ETF, which I bought before the war started.

That is an ETF that holds agriculture commodity futures contracts, and it broke out of a stage one base after the war began, and is now outperforming the S&P 500.

The reason DBA broke out is, because many of the components of it came out of stage one bases and began new bull markets of their own.

You can see this, for example, in the price of wheat.

A stage one phase happens when the 150 and 200-day moving averages trade sideways for a long period of time. Stage two is when they trend up and act as support and stage four is when a market trades below them, and they act as resistance.

The S&P 500 has fallen below those key moving averages and is now either in some sort of correction, as occurred last year in April, or bear market as happened in 2022.

In 2022, both US stocks and bonds had bear markets together as the Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates due to inflation. What was unusual, and made that bear market unique, is that never did the masses panic and sell out - instead they bought and bought all the way down. The VIX never got above 40 and there never was a big VIX spike that year - people just remained complacent and bullish all the way down.

So far, the same thing is happening now with the stock market.

Gold pulled back as the war started, and with big profit taking, after silver rallied above $100 and came back down, but now the GDX/GLD ratio is firming up.

This is my favorite sign for identifying the end of a correction in the price of gold, as typically when this turns up after a drop that is the bottom, or the sign that a bottom is near.

Despite that, gold is likely to go sideways for months now, maybe all year, as it digests the big gains of the past few years.

So, in sum, gold, silver, and mining stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, the red line you see on this chart, and never fell below that indicator, showing you that it remains in a stage two bull trend, and what we are now seeing is a correction/sideways phase.

Agriculture commodities broke out from stage one into stage two, as gold and silver did in 2024, and the US stock market remains below its 200-day moving average.

When the US stock market and bond market is below that and remains below it then it is time to be cautious and that is what I’m doing - and I don’t care what people are saying on the TV or what Trump is tweeting - it is best to ignore all that when it comes to investing and focus on the trends.

I did very little in 2022 too.

-Mike

la

Turn AI into Your Income Engine

Ready to transform artificial intelligence from a buzzword into your personal revenue generator

HubSpot’s groundbreaking guide "200+ AI-Powered Income Ideas" is your gateway to financial innovation in the digital age.

Inside you'll discover:

• A curated collection of 200+ profitable opportunities spanning content creation, e-commerce, gaming, and emerging digital markets—each vetted for real-world potential

• Step-by-step implementation guides designed for beginners, making AI accessible regardless of your technical background

• Cutting-edge strategies aligned with current market trends, ensuring your ventures stay ahead of the curve

Download your guide today and unlock a future where artificial intelligence powers your success. Your next income stream is waiting.

Get Your Guide

^{Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of WallstreetWindow its editors and contributors, and may change without notice. The information in this newsletter may become outdated and we have no obligation to update it. The information in this newsletter is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. It is provided for information purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor or a group of investors. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. We strongly advise you to discuss your investment options with a financial adviser prior to making any investments, including whether any investment is suitable for your specific needs. WallStreetWindow is owned by Timingwallstreet, Inc. and it is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide individual investment advice. This is a publication for the general public.}