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Two years ago we saw the price of silver and gold begin new bull markets once silver closed above $26.00 an ounce, a level that had held it down for two years and kept it locked into a long basing phase.

Very few people were paying attention at the time, and in fact I asked over and over again in my emails and videos if anyone knew of a single Bitcoin guru who was watching this breakout and not a single person informed me of a single such guru. In fact, I saw a few crypto gurus telling people to sell ALL of their gold and silver and put the money into Bitcoin, showing me how awful they are.

Finally, towards the end of last year the masses began to pay attention to silver, and then they really noticed it once it went above $100 an ounce this year.

And now, with the crypto bear market, the Bitcoin gurus are all vanishing from your social media feeds.

The important point is that the huge move of last year, was preceded by almost three years of silver price sideways consolidation from 2021 to 2024, which led to a very narrow range between $26 and $20 an ounce for most of 2023. That low price volatility caused the 200-day Bollinger Bands for silver to squeeze together, leading to the spring 2024 launch and new bull run.

In commodities bull markets gold tends to go up and perform the best at first, then silver and other precious metals, then soft commodities and finally energy.

So, last year we saw platinum and palladium breakout too, when palladium went above $1000 an ounce, and the SPPP ETF, which I bought last year, transition from a stage one basing phase into a stage two bull market.

You can see the stage one basing period for SPPP in the circled area of this chart.

Notice how the Bollinger Band width indicator fell below 20 during this time and the 150 and 200-day moving averages went sideways.

I went into 2025 pretty much full invested in gold, silver, and mining stocks and added on with SPPP after the April market drop over tariffs. I still hold SPPP, along with EMLC, where my two main new trades for 2025.

I still am pretty much fully invested as much as I need to be and so cannot make any really giant new trades right now, but I’m buying a position in the DBA ETF and it is likely to be my one big trade for 2026, barring a correction in the overall markets that brings a buying opportunity or signs of a real top in the markets, which I do not see right now.

DBA is an ETF for agriculture commodities and I believe it is in the same position that silver was in back in 2024, before silver broke out.

The Bollinger Band width indicator for DBA is at an extreme low.

I bought with the notion that the $24.76 area is solid support and plan to hold as a long-term position.

Maybe it breaks out this week and it might be months before it does it.

I first noticed how platinum and palladium were lining up a year before they finally broke out, and both had huge short interest in the futures market among small traders and hedge funds for almost a year before they started to go up and squeeze them.

DBA is a fund that holds various agriculture commodity futures contracts, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, hogs, cotton, and so forth.

Some of these have big short positions on them from hedge funds and some look like they are breaking out now, while others look like they are still going to go sideways for longer.

For instance wheat broke out on Friday.

The price of wheat ended a four year bear market on Friday and began a new bull market, by closing above the upper pink line you see on this chart, which is the upper 200-day Bollinger Band, and making a roughly new 52-week high. These are the type of moves that begin uptrends that last for years, as they mark the transition from a stage one base into a stage two bull market.

If I was a brand new trader looking to try to play for big swings, like I was in 1999 when I was trading internet stocks, I’d go learn how to trade these individual commodities with future contracts - and I mean REALLY learn. Read books, get help from experts, not just open up an app and enter orders thinking you know what you are doing.

I’m not doing that now myself - I’m not just trying to make money, but limit my risks and maximize returns at same time. Owning something like DBA provides me with diversification, because it doesn’t trade with the rest of the positions I have in my accounts, and I do believe it is going to up over the next few years anyway.

You can find out more about this fund by reading this.

Also note that it issues a K-1, because it is really a futures fund and taxed as one.

There is a non K-1 version - PDBA, but it pays a big dividend at the end of the year, so you get taxes on it that way.

-Mike

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^{Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this newsletter are those of WallstreetWindow its editors and contributors, and may change without notice. The information in this newsletter may become outdated and we have no obligation to update it. The information in this newsletter is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. It is provided for information purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor or a group of investors. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. We strongly advise you to discuss your investment options with a financial adviser prior to making any investments, including whether any investment is suitable for your specific needs. WallStreetWindow is owned by Timingwallstreet, Inc. and it is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide individual investment advice. This is a publication for the general public.}